In California, the home buyer tax credit has brought in an additional 33,000 buyers into the market and 227,600 first‐time buyers will be able to take advantage of the tax credit. Detailed, state‐by‐state information is not available on first‐time buyers, but using national information from the 2009 Home Buyer and Seller Survey available in preliminary format, we can estimate the impact in a state.
According to NAR, California existing home sales in the second half of 2008 were 530,800 at a seasonally adjusted annual rate. In the first half of 2009 they were 492,400. If sales continue this trajectory—as they are expected to do nationally—they could reach 523,800 for the year in California in 2009. If the share of first time home buyers in the market is similar to the national share, first time buyers will have purchased 212,320 homes at a seasonally adjusted annual rate in the second half of 2008 and will purchase 231,428 for the year 2009.
Because the tax credit is only in effect for 11 months out of the year, the estimated impact of the credit is an increase of 33,000 first‐time buyers. 227,600 first‐time buyers in the state of California are expected to be able to take advantage of the credit.
